Another long overdue post!
For so long, we have been marvelling at the sustained excellence and consistency of Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, and yes, Murray in regards to the Masters and Grand Slams.
We have been waiting for the Next Generation to really establish themselves – Dimitrov, Raonic, Nishikori, Dolgopolov etc but a quick look at their ages 23, 24, 25, 26 shows they’re not really the new guard any more. Even the prodigy of yesteryear, Richard Gasquet is now 28, having already been on tour for 13 years!
A year is a long time in tennis though. The two surprise Grand Slam winners last year Wawrinka and Cilic are 28 and 26 respectively. Hard to believe Cilic is only 26.
Dimitrov has the all-round package but hasn’t quite figured out how to make his game as efficient as it could be. For all the effort he puts into his shots and movement, my gut feeling is that he still labours to end points as easily as his predecessor, Federer. That extremely conservative Eastern backhand grip mystifies me too – if he does not strike it with the perfect angle of flex in his wrist, it goes awry very easily.
Raonic has a serve to die for. The real issue is his mentality, not necessarily his movement or backhand or anything technically apparent on the surface. He can mow down lower-ranked players with the ease of a Top 5 player but struggles when he faces the Big 4. Why? Because they bring chaos to his neat-and-orderly-one-serve-and-maybe-one-forehand-if-needed-game, they can return his missiles and then can tie him up at the baseline or bring him to the net against his will. Word is that he is very very academically intelligent and good with numbers, as was his father so people like that usually are very logic-orientated. “If I do this and that, therefore this should happen.” As of late, he has been working very hard to think outside the box and to go with the flow. Adaptability is what will make him a more watertight and coherent force in the big moments
Nishikori has serious game. Weapons off both sides, touch, foot speed, agility, endurance, improving first serve. His second serve is dubious under pressure due to his not-quote Continental grip but because his hands are so good, he gets away with it until he comes up against someone willing and ready to punish it! At the moment, because he was out for so long with injuries, career-wise, he is still about 22-23 years old in my opinion. It’s going to take time before he consolidates that rock-hard self-belief that he needs in the later rounds of the tournament against the big boys. Not just one match on clay against Nadal or against Djokovic on hard court but Masters after Masters and major after major. This is the real reason for Wawrinka’s ascension so when Nishikori catches up, watch out!
Dolgopolov – explosive. He is a lot like Nishikori in his physical gifts, but game-wise, he is willing to pull the trigger a lot earlier. Bigger serve and serious touch off the ground. He has talent to burn and expresses his love for the game in the way he plays. Will he continue this or will he ever decide he wants more? To want more means to carefully examine your shot selection and decision-making processes in order to be more effective at winning the big points but this does not gel well with his exciting, flashy game.
Tomic is sort of between the Next and Next Next Generation is now the elder of these guys and is now learning (maturing) what real professionalism is. Game-wise, his court craft and ball control is second to none. He can serve big, hit big, volley, slice, construct and deconstruct points, win without exerting too much energy, reads the play before opponent even hits the ball, there’s no question he knows tennis. The question marks are his movement and ability to hang with the big hitters when they’re on song.
So, until the Next Generation find out how to really win the big matches against the Big 4, time is ticking away and new blood is always emerging.
This brings us to our new group of rising stars, the Next Next Generation.
Kyrgios, Kokkinakis, Coric, Vesely who have made a real splash in their first foray onto the ATP tour. Their age and weapons and early results have earmarked them as real contenders for huge careers. In particular, Kygrios has displayed huge physical weapons and big-match experience to go for glory under pressure. Kokkinakis is a year younger but has the same fearlessness as Kyrgios, though perhaps not the same level of nuanced point execution yet.
This is the perfect time for them to combine their youth, athleticism and no-fear games to consistently forge big results but the real key will be who acts on their development the best. There is plenty of information out there but only those who are willing to explore everything and anything in search of success will win.
They are the ones who will not wait for their turn.
It’s entirely possible that when all of Federer, Djokovic, Nadal, Murray are really ready to step out of the game and the Next Generation are absolutely poised to finally snatch up their first majors, being nearly 30 themselves, they will be beaten to it by the Next Next Generation!